On 17th November last year, England finished their Euros qualification campaign with a 4-0 win away in Kosovo. In their eight matches, they'd scored 37 goals - the most by any nation. Gareth Southgate had successfully transitioned his side from the 2018 World Cup where goals from open play were scarce and now scoring was for fun.
5-0 versus Czech Republic, 5-1 and 7-0 versus Montenegro, 4-0 and 6-0 versus Bulgaria and 5-3 against Kosovo. It is those three let in against Kosovo, however, that have spooked Southgate.
Playing such attacking football requires energy that over the course of a long season - particularly this truncated one - may not function come June. 5-3-2 became 4-3-3 which has turned into 5-2-3.
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| England reached a World Cup semi-final using 5-3-2 Photo by Антон Зайцев |
The last winners of the major tournaments have been Portugal and France, whose managers in Fernando Santos and Didier Deschamps play a pragmatic style. It is built to win matches, to win tournaments.
Portugal, in 2016, won their first match in 90 minutes in the semi-finals against Wales, having drawn all three group matches, beat Croatia in extra time and Poland on penalties. The ends justifies the means.
Deschamps played defensive midfielder Blaise Matuidi as a left winger instead of Ousmane Dembele. An intriguing tactical move paid off - they won the World Cup.
Southgate has stressed the need for England to be able to control matches. Conceding three against Kosovo is far from being in control. Portugal and France are able to control with four at the back but Southgate has removed a creative midfielder in favour of another centre-back.
Santos still finds a way to play Bruno Fernandes in the centre, likewise Deschamps and Antoine Griezmann. Where James Maddison could be in the team, Southgate is now shoehorning right-back Kyle Walker into central defence, who lacks any defensive knowhow.
Removing a creative player from midfield increases the burden onto Harry Kane to score, create and press. He is asked to do too many roles it's not surprising he hasn't scored in his last five matches.
Jack Grealish has been a ray of sunshine in the dim England performances. He must start on the left if Southgate sticks with this formation. He is a creator, while someone like Rashford is a finisher.
The supply line to Kane has also been cut by Southgate's preference for a deep double midfield pivot of Declan Rice, Kalvin Phillips, Jordan Henderson or Harry Winks. None of them will play the killer pass to release Kane, Raheem Sterling or Jadon Sancho.
At Spurs, Kane drops deeps and plays direct passes beyond the defence to Heung-Min Son or Lucas Moura - runners in behind. Grealish and Mason Mount (who is not a winger) want the ball to feet and won't look to stretch the defence.
The performances have left England fans far from impressed but naturally in this climate, Covid-19 and injuries have played a part in Southgate's problems - Joe Gomez will likely miss the Euros. Maybe not in calling up five right backs. He needs to strike the right balance between controlling and not imposing our best players - attackers - on the game.
If Southgate has not reverted to 4-3-3 by June, I fear football may not be coming home.
My preferred England XI (4-3-3): Nick Pope; Trent Alexander-Arnold, Harry Maguire, Michael Keane, Ben Chilwell; Jordan Henderson, Mason Mount, James Maddison; Raheem Sterling, Harry Kane, Jack Grealish
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