Today, Manchester City lodged an appeal to the Court of Arbitration of Sport (CAS) over their two year ban (plus £25 million fine) from UEFA for breaking FFP regulations. It is expected that their ban will proceed but whether it is one or two seasons is not yet known but what is known is that whatever length the ban turns out to be, winning the Champions League this season is more crucial than ever for Manchester City and that starts tonight against Real Madrid.
It should be stated that the ban is for offences taken place between 2012-16. It has nothing to do with Pep Guardiola's time at the club or their star signings of Bernardo Silva or Leroy Sane since the Spaniard's arrival. They breached regulations for the period when Wilfried Bony was at the club. But the ban is also not for excessive spending - it is because they overstated their sponsorship revenue and it was Manchester City's failure to cooperate with UEFA proceeding that led to such a harsh sanction.
And Manchester City not cooperating shouldn't come as a shock. Their owner - Sheikh Mansour - is from the United Arab Emirates, an authoritarian country that does not pretend to hide its culture. Democracy does not exist in the UAE. There is no freedom of speech in the UAE. The rights of the LGBT community are suppressed in the UAE. Mansour embarked upon a 'sportswashing' project to use Manchester City as a vehicle to change the reputation of the UAE. He should not have been allowed to buy the club yet here we are with an owner from one of the country's with one of the worst human rights record in the world, thinking he can be deceitful towards the European football governing body and get away with it.
Much like PSG with their Qatari influences, the money thrown into Manchester City has seen them establish themselves as the dominant force in domestic competitions. Yet the Champions League is always the ultimate goal for 'sportswashing' projects. It is the most luxurious competition in the world and a sign that their objectives have been completed if they win the Champions League. Manchester City have never reached the final, fortunately. Since Mansour took over, Chelsea and Liverpool have won the Champions League, even Tottenham have got further than City by reaching the final last year. PSG have suffered the same fate as Manchester City, and their 2-1 loss to Borussia Dortmund shows no signs they may have overcome their European nosebleed.
All Mansour wants is the Champions League and to get that, he hired Guardiola, a man who suffers from worse neurosis than the club in the competition and arguably the one man who wants to lift the trophy more than them. Guardiola has spent his entire managerial career at clubs who possess large sums of money so winning domestic competitions is the minimal expectation, and winning the Champions League is the ultimate goal. He did it twice at Barcelona but for the past eight years he hasn't reached a final since.
In his final season at Barcelona, they suffered a surprise loss to Chelsea in the semi-finals. At Bayern Munich, they exited at the semi-finals in all three seasons, losing to Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid. At Manchester City so far, there has been a last 16 exit to Monaco and quarter-final exits to Liverpool and Tottenham. Guardiola puts so much pressure on himself to know every little detail about his opposition that when it comes to the Champions League, the games of the highest magnitude, he tends to overthink what he's doing which leads to his side losing.
Guardiola was not seen as a failure at Bayern Munich for not winning the Champions League and when his time at City comes to an end, he won't be deemed a failure, either. But his contract runs out at the end of the next season. Guardiola has already said he is committed to the club regardless of the final verdict on the ban but it is hard to see any way that Guardiola extends his contract. He has been lied to by the board, too, and that must not make for a good relationship anymore.
If City are banned for two seasons, then a mass exodus will surely happen. They have elite players who will not want to miss out two years at the highest level. David Silva is already leaving at the end of this season. Leroy Sane, Sergio Aguero and Fernandinho have contracts until 2021. John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi are with the club until 2022. That's when the longest prospective ban ends and for players like Kevin de Bruyne, Aymeric Laporte and Bernardo Silva, they are in their prime and will be wanted by a host of clubs if they want to leave Manchester. Players will leave and will be hard to replace them without Champions League football.
Sergio Aguero is the most interesting case. At 31, he is entering the twilight years of his career yet he is on record saying he will not leave City until he has won the Champions League with them. By June 2022, he will be just 34 and won't have many years left. A player of Aguero's quality has to be playing in the Champions League but he loyalty to Manchester City puts him in a predicament. His contract runs out next season and if he was to leave, the fans could harmly blame their greatest player ever.
It is now up to the players and Guardiola to win the Champions League this season, as it may be the last time this contingent will have the opportunity to do so. It is rather intriguing that Real Madrid are their opponents tonight, a club that has always been a thorn in Guardiola's side and the side City have wanted to emulate since their petro-state owners came along.
Guardiola is Barcelona through and through so he does not like Real Madrid, to put is bluntly. Their success in the Champions League is one that has forever irked the Catalans. Guardiola doesn't want to beat any other side more than Real Madrid - perhaps his personal feelings could lead to another session of overthinking? Real have already made him to this as a manager in this very competition. In 2014, after losing the first leg 1-0, Guardiola set up his Bayern Munich side in an ultra-attacking 4-2-4 and lost 4-0, which saw Madrid go on to secure 'La Decima'. It seems destined that Real Madrid are the ones to end Guardiola's dreams of becoming the first Manchester City manager to lift the Champions League.
Madrid's rich history in the competition is also one that City look up in inspiration to. Real Madrid have won the Champions League the most in history and no other side in football has the same glitz and glamour associated with them than Real Madrid, which is as a result of their success in this competition. City will never have the same tradition as Madrid but what they could have is the global appeal that the Spanish giants do. One way to do that is to win the Champions League. It also seems destined that the one club Manchester City has idolised could dash their hopes under the manager that was supposedly going to be the one to lift them to the same heights.
Guardiola will have his played fired up for this and the rest of the season. The bizarre "anti-UEFA" feeling from the fans will have drifted into the squad and they'd love nothing more than to show UEFA up by winning their premier competition. City can beat Real Madrid, they can win the Champions League. If Guardiola manages to control his emotions and remains calm in the pressurised moments, City may reach the pinnacle of club football and also not have the right to defend their title, should justice prevail.
It should be stated that the ban is for offences taken place between 2012-16. It has nothing to do with Pep Guardiola's time at the club or their star signings of Bernardo Silva or Leroy Sane since the Spaniard's arrival. They breached regulations for the period when Wilfried Bony was at the club. But the ban is also not for excessive spending - it is because they overstated their sponsorship revenue and it was Manchester City's failure to cooperate with UEFA proceeding that led to such a harsh sanction.
And Manchester City not cooperating shouldn't come as a shock. Their owner - Sheikh Mansour - is from the United Arab Emirates, an authoritarian country that does not pretend to hide its culture. Democracy does not exist in the UAE. There is no freedom of speech in the UAE. The rights of the LGBT community are suppressed in the UAE. Mansour embarked upon a 'sportswashing' project to use Manchester City as a vehicle to change the reputation of the UAE. He should not have been allowed to buy the club yet here we are with an owner from one of the country's with one of the worst human rights record in the world, thinking he can be deceitful towards the European football governing body and get away with it.
Much like PSG with their Qatari influences, the money thrown into Manchester City has seen them establish themselves as the dominant force in domestic competitions. Yet the Champions League is always the ultimate goal for 'sportswashing' projects. It is the most luxurious competition in the world and a sign that their objectives have been completed if they win the Champions League. Manchester City have never reached the final, fortunately. Since Mansour took over, Chelsea and Liverpool have won the Champions League, even Tottenham have got further than City by reaching the final last year. PSG have suffered the same fate as Manchester City, and their 2-1 loss to Borussia Dortmund shows no signs they may have overcome their European nosebleed.
All Mansour wants is the Champions League and to get that, he hired Guardiola, a man who suffers from worse neurosis than the club in the competition and arguably the one man who wants to lift the trophy more than them. Guardiola has spent his entire managerial career at clubs who possess large sums of money so winning domestic competitions is the minimal expectation, and winning the Champions League is the ultimate goal. He did it twice at Barcelona but for the past eight years he hasn't reached a final since.
In his final season at Barcelona, they suffered a surprise loss to Chelsea in the semi-finals. At Bayern Munich, they exited at the semi-finals in all three seasons, losing to Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid. At Manchester City so far, there has been a last 16 exit to Monaco and quarter-final exits to Liverpool and Tottenham. Guardiola puts so much pressure on himself to know every little detail about his opposition that when it comes to the Champions League, the games of the highest magnitude, he tends to overthink what he's doing which leads to his side losing.
Guardiola was not seen as a failure at Bayern Munich for not winning the Champions League and when his time at City comes to an end, he won't be deemed a failure, either. But his contract runs out at the end of the next season. Guardiola has already said he is committed to the club regardless of the final verdict on the ban but it is hard to see any way that Guardiola extends his contract. He has been lied to by the board, too, and that must not make for a good relationship anymore.
If City are banned for two seasons, then a mass exodus will surely happen. They have elite players who will not want to miss out two years at the highest level. David Silva is already leaving at the end of this season. Leroy Sane, Sergio Aguero and Fernandinho have contracts until 2021. John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi are with the club until 2022. That's when the longest prospective ban ends and for players like Kevin de Bruyne, Aymeric Laporte and Bernardo Silva, they are in their prime and will be wanted by a host of clubs if they want to leave Manchester. Players will leave and will be hard to replace them without Champions League football.
Sergio Aguero is the most interesting case. At 31, he is entering the twilight years of his career yet he is on record saying he will not leave City until he has won the Champions League with them. By June 2022, he will be just 34 and won't have many years left. A player of Aguero's quality has to be playing in the Champions League but he loyalty to Manchester City puts him in a predicament. His contract runs out next season and if he was to leave, the fans could harmly blame their greatest player ever.
It is now up to the players and Guardiola to win the Champions League this season, as it may be the last time this contingent will have the opportunity to do so. It is rather intriguing that Real Madrid are their opponents tonight, a club that has always been a thorn in Guardiola's side and the side City have wanted to emulate since their petro-state owners came along.
Guardiola is Barcelona through and through so he does not like Real Madrid, to put is bluntly. Their success in the Champions League is one that has forever irked the Catalans. Guardiola doesn't want to beat any other side more than Real Madrid - perhaps his personal feelings could lead to another session of overthinking? Real have already made him to this as a manager in this very competition. In 2014, after losing the first leg 1-0, Guardiola set up his Bayern Munich side in an ultra-attacking 4-2-4 and lost 4-0, which saw Madrid go on to secure 'La Decima'. It seems destined that Real Madrid are the ones to end Guardiola's dreams of becoming the first Manchester City manager to lift the Champions League.
Madrid's rich history in the competition is also one that City look up in inspiration to. Real Madrid have won the Champions League the most in history and no other side in football has the same glitz and glamour associated with them than Real Madrid, which is as a result of their success in this competition. City will never have the same tradition as Madrid but what they could have is the global appeal that the Spanish giants do. One way to do that is to win the Champions League. It also seems destined that the one club Manchester City has idolised could dash their hopes under the manager that was supposedly going to be the one to lift them to the same heights.
Guardiola will have his played fired up for this and the rest of the season. The bizarre "anti-UEFA" feeling from the fans will have drifted into the squad and they'd love nothing more than to show UEFA up by winning their premier competition. City can beat Real Madrid, they can win the Champions League. If Guardiola manages to control his emotions and remains calm in the pressurised moments, City may reach the pinnacle of club football and also not have the right to defend their title, should justice prevail.
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